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Modelling and mapping climate change impacts on permafrost at high spatial resolution for a region with complex terrain

Авторы
ЧЖАН Ю.Канадский центр дистанционного зондирования Министерства природных ресурсов Канады, г. Оттава, пров. Онтарио, Канада
ВАН С.Колледж ресурсов и экологии Хэбэйского педагогического университета, г. Шицзячжуан, пров. Хэбэй, Китай
ФРЕЙЗЕР Р.Канадский центр дистанционного зондирования Министерства природных ресурсов Канады, г. Оттава, пров. Онтарио, Канада
ОЛТХОФ И.Канадский центр дистанционного зондирования Министерства природных ресурсов Канады, г. Оттава, пров. Онтарио, Канада
ЧЭНЬ В.Канадский центр дистанционного зондирования Министерства природных ресурсов Канады, г. Оттава, пров. Онтарио, Канада
МАКЛЕННАН Д.Агентство парков Канады, р-н Халл, г. Гатино, пров. Квебек, Канада
У В.Северный сервисный центр для Северо-Западных территорий Канады Агентства парков Канады, г. Виннипег, пров. Манитоба, Канада

Abstract: We present a slightly abridged and adapted translation of the long paper “Modelling and mapping climate change impacts on permafrost at high spatial resolution for a region with complex terrain” written by a group of Canadian and Chineze researchers (Zhang et al., 2013). It was published in 2013 in the “The Cryosphere” journal. It is an open access paper under the CC BY 3.0 license that allows it to be distributed, translated, adapted, and supplemented, provided that the types of changes are noted and the original source is referred to. In our case, the full reference to the original paper (Zhang et al., 2013), which was used for the presented translation, is given in the end.

Most spatial modelling of climate change impacts on permafrost has been conducted at half-degree latitude/longitude or coarser spatial resolution. At such coarse resolution, topographic effects on insolation cannot be considered accurately and the results are not suitable for landuse planning and ecological assessment. Here the authors mapped climate change impacts on permafrost from 1968 to 2100 at 10 m resolution using a process-based model for Ivvavik National Park (an Arctic region with complex terrain in northern Yukon, Canada). Soil and drainage conditions were defined based on ecosystem types, which were mapped using SPOT imagery. Leaf area indices were mapped using Landsat imagery and the ecosystem map. Climate distribution was estimated based on elevation and station observations, and the effects of topography on insolation were calculated based on slope, aspect and viewshed. To reduce computation time, the authors clustered climate distribution and topographic effects on insolation into discrete types. `-

The modelled active-layer thickness and permafrost distribution were comparable with field observations and other studies. The map portrayed large variations in active-layer thickness, with ecosystem types being the most important controlling variable, followed by climate, including topographic effects on insolation.

The results show deepening in active-layer thickness and progressive degradation of permafrost, although permafrost will persist in most of the park during the 21st century. This study also shows that ground conditions and climate scenarios are the major sources of uncertainty for high-resolution permafrost mapping.

Keywords: permafrost; climate; climate change; topography; ground conditions; soil conditions; active layer; modeling; mapping

DOI: https://doi.org/10.58339/2949-0677-2025-7-1-54-75

UDC: 551.583; 551.581.1

 

For citation: Zhang Yu., Wang X., Fraser R., Olthof I., Chen W., Mclennan D., Ponomarenko S., Wu W. Modelirovanie i kartirovanie vliyaniya izmenenii klimata na mnogoletnyuyu merzlotu v regione so slozhnym rel'efom s vysokim prostranstvennym razresheniem [Modelling and mapping climate change impacts on permafrost at high spatial resolution for a region with complex terrain (in Rus.)] // Geoinfo. 2025. T. 7. № 1. S. 54–75. DOI:10.58339/2949-0677-2025-7-1-54-75.

 

Funding: The research presented in the article was supported by the Canadian Space Agency under the ParkSPACE GRIP project and by Natural Resources Canada under the Earth Observation Program (Earth Sciences Sector contribution No. 20120211). The article was edited by T. Zhang (original article in English – Ed.)

 

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Article in RSCI: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=82518759